Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 6.235716e-05 0.000075 0.000088 0.000104 0.000122 0.000141 0.000163
2025-04-06 4.292607e-05 0.000059 0.000078 0.000101 0.000129 0.000162 0.000201
2025-04-13 3.345511e-05 0.000050 0.000071 0.000099 0.000134 0.000175 0.000227
2025-04-20 2.469680e-05 0.000041 0.000063 0.000093 0.000133 0.000182 0.000245
2025-04-27 2.008155e-05 0.000037 0.000060 0.000093 0.000138 0.000195 0.000270
2025-05-04 1.675756e-05 0.000033 0.000058 0.000094 0.000144 0.000210 0.000298
2025-05-11 1.426619e-05 0.000031 0.000056 0.000095 0.000151 0.000225 0.000326
2025-05-18 1.219238e-05 0.000028 0.000055 0.000097 0.000158 0.000240 0.000354
2025-05-25 9.473313e-06 0.000024 0.000050 0.000093 0.000157 0.000244 0.000368
2025-06-01 7.225098e-06 0.000021 0.000046 0.000089 0.000155 0.000247 0.000380
2025-06-08 5.805812e-06 0.000019 0.000043 0.000087 0.000157 0.000256 0.000399
2025-06-15 4.724475e-06 0.000017 0.000042 0.000087 0.000160 0.000265 0.000420
2025-06-22 3.518568e-06 0.000015 0.000039 0.000086 0.000163 0.000277 0.000447
2025-06-29 2.421093e-06 0.000012 0.000036 0.000083 0.000164 0.000286 0.000471
2025-07-06 1.681933e-06 0.000010 0.000033 0.000081 0.000166 0.000296 0.000496
2025-07-13 9.959439e-07 0.000008 0.000029 0.000077 0.000163 0.000298 0.000509
2025-07-20 6.823590e-07 0.000007 0.000028 0.000076 0.000166 0.000310 0.000538
2025-07-27 4.822706e-07 0.000006 0.000027 0.000077 0.000172 0.000326 0.000571
2025-08-03 3.431065e-07 0.000006 0.000027 0.000078 0.000179 0.000343 0.000607
2025-08-10 2.380828e-07 0.000005 0.000026 0.000079 0.000185 0.000360 0.000644
2025-08-17 1.147754e-07 0.000004 0.000024 0.000076 0.000183 0.000363 0.000660
2025-08-24 4.477101e-08 0.000003 0.000021 0.000073 0.000181 0.000366 0.000674
2025-08-31 1.789260e-08 0.000003 0.000020 0.000071 0.000182 0.000375 0.000699